Cyclone Remal’s Unpredictable Path: Potential Landfall Scenarios and Preparations

Cyclone Remal's Unpredictable Path: Potential Landfall Scenarios and Preparations

Cyclone Remal is poised to form over the east-central Bay of Bengal, bringing with it uncertainty regarding its trajectory and landfall. As weather agencies provide divergent predictions, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and state governments are preparing for various scenarios to mitigate the impact of this potentially severe cyclone.


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Cyclone Remal: Latest Updates, Forecast, and Safety Measures for West Bengal, Bangladesh, and Odisha

Current Situation and Predictions

Cyclone Remal is expected to develop into a severe cyclone by May 26, 2024. The storm’s path remains uncertain, with models showing different potential landfall locations.


IMD’s Latest Update

The IMD has reported that the low-pressure area in the south Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a depression by May 24 and further into a deep depression on the same day. By May 25, it is expected to escalate into a cyclone, moving in a north-eastern direction initially.



Possible Landfall Scenarios

West Bengal and Bangladesh Coast

According to data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Cyclone Remal may take a northerly route, making landfall on the West Bengal coast and impacting the Sundarbans delta by the evening of May 26. This scenario poses significant risks to the vulnerable delta region.

Odisha Coast

Alternatively, data from the United States Global Forecasting System (GFS) suggests that the cyclone could veer westward, making landfall between Puri and Paradip in Odisha on the morning of May 26. This track indicates a more direct impact on the Odisha coastline.



Factors Influencing Cyclone Remal’s Path

Several factors are contributing to the uncertainty of Cyclone Remal’s path:

  • Warm Sea Surface Temperatures: The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has noted warm sea surface temperatures of 30-31°C, which are conducive to cyclone formation.
  • Moderate Vertical Wind Shear: These conditions are also favorable for cyclone development but may affect the cyclone’s strength and direction.


Weather Alerts and Warnings

The IMD has issued heavy rainfall alerts for West Bengal, Odisha, Mizoram, Tripura, and south Manipur for May 26 and 27. These regions should prepare for potential severe weather conditions, including strong winds and heavy rainfall.



Preparations and Safety Measures

For Residents in Affected Areas

  1. Stay Informed: Keep updated with the latest weather forecasts and alerts from reliable sources such as the IMD and local authorities.
  2. Emergency Kits: Prepare an emergency kit with essential items such as water, non-perishable food, medications, and important documents.
  3. Evacuation Plans: Have a clear evacuation plan in place. Know the nearest shelters and safe locations.
  4. Secure Property: Protect your property by securing loose items, reinforcing windows, and taking measures to prevent flooding.


For Authorities

  1. Early Warnings: Ensure timely dissemination of warnings and updates to the public.
  2. Evacuation Readiness: Prepare evacuation routes and shelters to accommodate affected populations.
  3. Resource Allocation: Mobilize resources and personnel for emergency response and relief operations.
  4. Coordination: Maintain coordination between national and international weather agencies for accurate and timely information.



Cyclone Remal’s unpredictable nature underscores the importance of preparedness and vigilance. With potential landfall on either the West Bengal, Bangladesh, or Odisha coasts, both residents and authorities must stay alert and ready to respond to changing forecasts.

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