The 2024 Indian general elections are going on. It is one of the most important events in the world’s largest democracy. Lok Sabha Elections 2024 is about to end. It will end with the last phase of voting on June 1. All eyes will be on the exit polls because they will provide potential outcomes of the election. These polls, conducted by various agencies, offer insights into voter behaviour and possible results for the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha. Today’s seventh phase of polling is conducted for the 904 candidates, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, across 57 seats in several state and union territories.

Election Exit Poll 2024 will start coming after 6 pm on June 1 (Saturday) and result outcomes will be released on June 4 (Tuesday).

Indian General Election 2024 – Exit Poll Results

State-wise Seat Distribution

What are Election Exit Polls?

Exit polls are post-election surveys conducted immediately after voters leave polling stations. It predicts the winner and the margin among the candidates before the official counts are announced. they aim to predict the outcome of elections by asking a sample of voters who they voted for. 

Importance and Methodology of Exit Polls

• Purpose: Election Exit Polls help media organizations, political analysts, and the public to estimate where the election is going. It provides a snapshot of voter preferences according to the geographical areas.
• Methodology: They ask voters to anonymously disclose their choices at the polling station. The whole data is collected, and then it predicts the overall election result before the official announcement.
• Sample Size and Representation: Accurate exit polls require a sufficiently large and representative sample to reflect the diversity of the electorate. They consider age, gender, socioeconomic status, and geographic distribution.

Why do exit polls matter?

Election Exit Polls matter because they offer an early indication of election results. They provide insight into how people voted. With the help of the public and media, they release an expected result before official counts are released. They interact with the voter outside the polling station, when voters exit from the polling station. However, these polls provide valuable insights into voter behaviour and preferences. This information is very crucial for political parties to adjust their strategies and expected results. In addition, exit polls can influence financial markets by signalling political stability or change, impacting economic policies. They also engage the public by fostering transparency and confidence in the electoral process.

People give the same importance to the Exit polls, as they do with the actual result. Exit Polls start releasing their data after the last day of voting. People are eagerly waiting for the Exit Polls Result in India. 

Exit Polls Prediction and National Trends

The exit polls suggest a continued dominance by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership. However, there is a tough composition between the  Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government and the INDIA bloc, which consists of parties like the Congress, the Trinamool Congress (TMC), the Shiv Sena (UBT), the Nationalist Congress Party- Sharadchandra Pawar, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the National Conference (NC), the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and more. But, it is expected that the NDA appears to retain substantial support across the nation.

• BJP’s Stronghold: The BJP holds a strong position in this General Election. It is projected to win a significant number of seats by maintaining its stronghold in key states. There is a possibility that NDA will hold the majority of seats from 286 to 400 seats.
• Opposition’s Challenge: The INDIA bloc, which includes several opponent parties gained seats but not enough to challenge the NDA. It is expected to win around 101 to 150 seats.
• Regional Parties’ Influence: Regional Parties will play an important role in some areas like Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and West Bengal. They are projected to win a significant number of seats.

According to the analysis of key states and key regions, the following factors have been observed and discussed in detail below-

State-wise Analysis

• Uttar Pradesh: The most populous state of India is a battleground state in the election. This is likely to give the NDA approximately 72 out of 80 seats for the actual members, with the remaining 8 seats to be claimed by the INDIA bloc.
• Maharashtra: For Maharashtra, the INDIA bloc is anticipated to win 26 and the NDA 22 parliamentary seats with a stand-off between the two formations regarding the vote splitting.
• Gujarat: The ruling BJP has the potential to secure all 26 seats just as it has been performing in most of the state.
• Rajasthan: Analysts predict that the NDA will gain all 25 parliamentary seats, in an evidenced show of political power in the state.
• Madhya Pradesh: According to the Assembly constituency-wise survey, NDA will again come into power with 27 out of 29 seats thereby leaving the remaining two for the INDIA bloc.
• Delhi: The seven seats in New Delhi are expected to be won by the BJP while the AAP’s performance remains constant.
• Tamil Nadu: The following INDIA bloc, especially Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has a great chance to secure all 39 seats which also indicates the regional party’s supremacy.
• Telangana: In the general elections INDIA bloc is likely to increase from 16 to around 17 winning 10 of them and thus rival bloc BJP-led NDA is expected to win 3 of them.
• West Bengal: TMC, led by Mamata Banerjee, can comfortably win 22 seats while BJP will gain 9 seats if recent trends are any indication.

When are Exit Polls Released?

Exit Polls are released immediately after the polling process ends in an election. It started on the last day of voting when all the phases of the General Election will end, and exit polls will start their work. The Election Commission of India (ECI) sets specific guidelines and timeframes for when exit polls can be made public to ensure they do not influence voters. However, you can expect exit polls at 6:00 PM on 1 June. 

Where to Watch Exit Polls?

Exit Polls will be released on the news channels, both on television and online. You can watch Exit Polls on new channels like NDTV, India Today, CNN-News18, Times Now, and Republic TV. They broadcast the exit polls as well as analysis and discussions on the exit poll results. YOu can also check exit polls result on news websites and social media platforms. It is very easy to check exit polls anywhere in this digital world. Check real-time updates released by exit polls on the TV, Phone, etc.

History of Exit Polls in India

The history of Exit Polls belongs to the 1950s, but it became more prominent in the 1990s. Years back, exit polls are announced in the newspapers and limited media outlets. With the increase in technology advancement and media channels, it became a staple in Indian elections. Over the years, exit polls have faced controversies regarding their accuracy and potential to influence voter behaviour, but still, it is an important part of the electoral process. 

• In 1999, the first major televised exit polls were conducted. It captures national viewers
• In 2004, exit polls failed to predict the UPA’s victory which brought it to controversy whether they were reliable or not.
• In 2009, the prediction of exit polls was maxed. Many exit polls predicted UPA victory.
• In 2014, exit polls forecasted the accurate victory of the BJP. It is a turning point for the exit polls to give reliable data. People start believing the exit polls and make a huge change in their reputation.
• In 2019, exit polls again predicted the accurate data by predicting the majority for the BJP-led NDA. It was telecasted to many news channels and got millions of viewers around the nation.

Conclusion:

Exit Polls are an important tool in modern democracies. They provide early glimpses into election results according to voter behaviour. According to many reports, it is predicted that the 2024 Indian general election will be dominated by the BJP-led NDA. For exit poll prediction, stay connected with the television and online platforms after the end of the election. It is a probability start at 6:00 PM on 1 June. Exit Polls not only forecast potential results but also provide valuable insights into the political landscape, voter preferences, and future governance directions.